Ascot Gold Cup

18 Jun

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This is the longest G1 on the Flat all season and my favourite race of the week. This is a grueling test and a lot of the non stayers will be beat before turning for home. Irish horses have won 7 of the last 9 runnings of this race. The Irish trained Forgotten Rules is set to start a warm favourite for Dermot Weld having added the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan last month. He won the British Champions Series Long Distance Cup over 2 mile on this track last October. Three winners since 2007 won the Vintage Crop en route to success here. He’s unbeaten in 4 starts including a NH bumper. He won a maiden at the Galway Festival last year by half the track and did not disappoint when upped in class. His trainer thinks an awful lot of this horse and there sure is more to come. Free Eagle won at the track for Weld yesterday so the yard is in top form. The only slight doubt about Forgotten Rules is the ground. His best form has been on soft but has won twice on good ground. There is no forecast rain but the clerk of the track said the course will be watered overnight which could make the difference. He should go on the ground if firm, I think the doubts are more so about the horses future. 2 miles 4F on Firm ground can ruin a good horse. There are no real doubts about this horse and he should win.

 

Aidan O’Brien has a great record in this race. He won it 4 times with Yeats and twice since with Fame and Glory and Leading Light. This year Aidan runs Kingfisher who was 2nd in last years Irish Derby. The furthest race he won was over 1 mile 6F. There is a stamina doubt about him but there were doubts about his other winners staying the trip in this race too. He has 8 and a ½ lengths to find with Forgotten Rules on his run in the Vintage Crop Stakes over 1 mile 6F. He then followed that up with a win at Leopardstown. Even if he sees out the trip he still has a lot of work to do to beat a proven stayer in Forgotten Rules. Is sure to be bang there at the finish but should come up short.  

 

Mizzou the second favourite comes into the race in great form. He won the Sagaro Stakes over 2 mile at this track on his only run this season. That was the furthest he has run so far and he was tiring late on. I’d have my doubts about him seeing out the trip. On the form he also has a fair bit to find with Forgotten Rules. I think 5/1 is a very short price for a horse who might not stay. I couldn’t have him at all. Vent De Force is the one who I think can put up the biggest fight to Forgotten Rules. He was an unlucky 2nd behind Mizzou on this course in the Sagaro stakes. He really should of won that day. He then beat one of today’s rivals Trip to Paris at Sandown over 2 miles and ½ furlong. He made all that day and dictated the pace. He may try and do the same again today. He looks like he will improve for this trip.

 

Trip to Paris was staying on well at the finish behind Vent De Force but the winner was well in command. Trip to Paris has gone from strength to strength this season. He has won 3 of his last 4 races including the Chester Cup over 2 Miles 2 and ½ furlongs. He has gone up 19lbs in the ratings by doing so. This is a different kettle of fish though. He is sure to stay but I think he may be outclassed by a few in here. He and Vent De Force at both at 10/1 which is a decent e.w price for both. Simenon has a great record in staying races at this track and in this race. He was 2nd in this 2 years back and 4th in this last year. He’s 8 years old now though and is coming back from an injury. Like he did last year in this race, he will be passing the tiring non stayers late on and could reach the top 5 but I can’t see him winning. If the ground doesn’t get too hard Forgotten Rules should win this.

 
Selection: Forgotten Rules 5/2

 

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